Estimating and Simulating a Sird Model of Covid-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities

60 Pages Posted: 12 May 2020 Last revised: 20 May 2020

See all articles by Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Charles I. Jones

Stanford Graduate School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Date Written: May 2020

Abstract

We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and various countries and regions to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible futures for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening. Our current baselinemortality rate (IFR) is assumed to be 1.0% but we recognize there is substantial uncertainty about this number. Our model fits the death data equally well with alternative mortality rates of 0.5% or 1.2%, so this parameter is unidentified in our data. However, its value matters enormously for the extent to which various places can relax social distancing without spurring a resurgence of deaths.

Suggested Citation

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Jones, Charles I., Estimating and Simulating a Sird Model of Covid-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities (May 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w27128, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3597860

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (Contact Author)

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Charles I. Jones

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