How Do Credit Supply Conditions Transmit Across the Globe?

Abstract

Pointing to the prominent role of global shocks in determining financial outcomes, global credit aggregates and indicators of country-specific credit market stress co-move to a significant extent. In this work, we examine the transmission of global credit supply shocks associated with governments, businesses and households to the country level. In a data-rich environment, we show that a substantial amount of variation in credit aggregates and interest rates is explained by common global credit supply components. In addition, we find that real risk and term premia and their associated uncertainties (i.e., realized volatilities) transmit global shocks to country-level debt and equity markets. However, effect magnitudes and signs are heterogeneous across sectors, and highlight the relevance of sector-specific credit market monitoring. For instance, whereas global government credit supply eases financial pressures, acting as safe-haven lending, global household credit supply shocks significantly increase risk and liquidity premia across the globe.

Keywords: global credit supply, credit composition, financial cycle, dynamic factor model

JEL Classification: C32, C38, E44, E51