The Abilene Paradox: The Curse of Caring Too Much

Abstract

The Abilene Paradox is a situation in which a group of people implement an outcome which is not preferred by any individual. Our theoretical model shows that a combination of social preferences and incomplete information can lead to the Abilene Paradox in a sequential voting game among rational agents. This model is then tested in an online experiment. We find that the social value orientation measure (SVO) is a good predictor of behaviors that lead to the Abilene Paradox, as well as a larger group size and a larger degree of conflict among group members. Moreover, when someone is the first to vote in the group, they are more likely to vote in accordance with their preferences than if they are the second, third, and so on.

Keywords: Abilene Paradox, social preferences, social value orientation, uncertainty, strategy method, online experiment, personality

JEL Classification: D7, D83, D91, C9