Direct Democracy Backsliding, 1950-2024

Abstract

Direct democracy backsliding occurs when a government alters its laws to hinder the use of initiatives and referendums. This study develops a measure of direct democracy backsliding, collects the data to calculate it over the last 70 years, and documents several trends and patterns. The data reveal a continuous chipping away at direct democracy throughout the period; legislatures proposed 2.2 amendments restricting direct democracy every two-year electoral cycle on average, and four amendments restricting direct democracy for every one amendment expanding it. The amount of such activity in recent years is high but not at a peak for the period. The strongest predictor of anti-direct-democracy proposals is Republican control of the state legislature. There is not much evidence that legislators sought to restrict direct democracy for strategic reasons, either to forestall future adverse policy outcomes, or in reaction to past adverse outcomes. 

Keywords: Direct democracy, initiatives and references, democratic backsliding, institutions; institutional change

JEL Classification: H1, H7