A Forward-Looking Tracker of Negotiated Wages in the Euro Area

54 Pages Posted: 12 Feb 2024

See all articles by Lucyna Gόrnicka

Lucyna Gόrnicka

European Central Bank (ECB)

Gerrit Koester

European Central Bank (ECB)

Daniel Radowski

Deutsche Bundesbank

Erwan Gautier

Banque de France

Raffaella Nizzi

Bank of Italy

Fabrizio Colonna

Bank of Italy

Mario Izquierdo Peinado

Banco de España

Maikel Volkerink

De Nederlandsche Bank

Alfred Stiglbauer

Austrian National Bank

Christos Antonopoulos

Bank of Greece

David Wittekopf

European Central Bank (ECB)

Evgeni Piryankov

European Central Bank (ECB)

Sergio Puente

Banco de España

Angel Luis Gomez

Banco de España

Yves Saks

National Bank of Belgium

Barbara Coppens

National Bank of Belgium

Claudia Duarte

Bank of Portugal - Economic Research Department

Fernando Martins

Bank of Portugal - Research Department; University of Lisbon - School of Economics and Management; Universidade Lusíada, Lisboa

Francesco D’Amuri

Bank of Italy

Gaetano Basso

Bank of Italy

Matthias Bing

European Central Bank (ECB)

Reamonn Lydon

Central Bank of Ireland

Justina Zajankauskaitė

Bank of Lithuania

Kristupas Pribuišis

Bank of Lithuania

Mojca Lindič

Bank of Slovenia

Gasper Ploj

Bank of Slovenia

Marios Polemidiotis

Central Bank of Cyprus

Harri Pönkä

Bank of Finland

Meri Obstbaum

Bank of Finland

Pavlos Petroulas

Bank of Greece

Cindy Veiga Nunes

Banque Centrale du Luxembourg

Michal Doliak

National Bank of Slovakia

Jan Beka

National Bank of Slovakia

Aurora Monza

European Central Bank (ECB)

Marc Roca i Llevadot

European Central Bank (ECB)

Gaetano Polichetti

European Central Bank (ECB)

Nicola Benatti

European Central Bank (ECB)

Bruno Fagandini

European Central Bank (ECB)

Peter Healy

European Central Bank (ECB)

Date Written: February, 2024

Abstract

This paper introduces innovative, newly developed forward-looking indicators of negotiated wage growth in the euro area using data on collective bargaining agreements from seven countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Greece. The paper demonstrates how agreement-level data can be used to study drivers of aggregate negotiated wage growth, as well as monitor the breadth of wage increases and account for time-varying factors such as one-off payments, when assessing wage pressures. Lastly, the paper shows that the new indicators can provide reliable signals about current and future developments of wage pressures in the euro area while also serving as important cross-checking tools for negotiated wage growth forecasts.

Keywords: collective bargaining, negotiated wages, wage forecasting, wage rigidity

JEL Classification: E24, J31, J50

Suggested Citation

Gόrnicka, Lucyna and Koester, Gerrit B. and Radowski, Daniel and Gautier, Erwan and Nizzi, Raffaella and Colonna, Fabrizio and Peinado, Mario Izquierdo and Volkerink, Maikel and Stiglbauer, Alfred and Antonopoulos, Christos and Wittekopf, David and Piryankov, Evgeni and Puente, Sergio and Gomez, Angel Luis and Saks, Yves and Coppens, Barbara and Duarte, Claudia and Martins, Fernando and D’Amuri, Francesco and Basso, Gaetano and Bing, Matthias and Lydon, Reamonn P and Zajankauskaitė, Justina and Pribuišis, Kristupas and Lindič, Mojca and Ploj, Gasper and Polemidiotis, Marios and Pönkä, Harri and Obstbaum, Meri and Petroulas, Pavlos and Veiga Nunes, Cindy and Doliak, Michal and Beka, Jan and Monza, Aurora and Llevadot, Marc Roca i and Polichetti, Gaetano and Benatti, Nicola and Fagandini, Bruno and Healy, Peter, A Forward-Looking Tracker of Negotiated Wages in the Euro Area (February, 2024). ECB Occasional Paper No. 2024/338, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4722142 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4722142

Lucyna Gόrnicka (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Gerrit B. Koester

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Daniel Radowski

Deutsche Bundesbank ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
Frankfurt/Main, 60431
Germany

Erwan Gautier

Banque de France

Paris
France

Raffaella Nizzi

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Fabrizio Colonna

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Mario Izquierdo Peinado

Banco de España

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Maikel Volkerink

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

PO Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

Alfred Stiglbauer

Austrian National Bank ( email )

Otto-Wagner Platz 1
A-1011 Vienna
Austria

Christos Antonopoulos

Bank of Greece ( email )

21 E. Venizelos Avenue
GR 102 50 Athens
Greece

David Wittekopf

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Evgeni Piryankov

European Central Bank (ECB)

Sergio Puente

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Angel Luis Gomez

Banco de España

Yves Saks

National Bank of Belgium ( email )

Brussels, B-1000

Barbara Coppens

National Bank of Belgium

Claudia Duarte

Bank of Portugal - Economic Research Department ( email )

R. do Ouro 27
Lisboa, 1100-150
Portugal

HOME PAGE: http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/EconomistasInvestigadores/Pages/ClaudiaDuarte.aspx

Fernando Martins

Bank of Portugal - Research Department ( email )

Av. Almirante Reis 71, 6th
Lisbon 1150-012
Portugal

University of Lisbon - School of Economics and Management ( email )

Rua do Quelhas, n.º 6
Lisbon, 1200-781
Portugal

Universidade Lusíada, Lisboa ( email )

Rua da Junqueira, 188 - 198
Lisboa, 1349-001
Portugal

Francesco D’Amuri

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
00184 Roma
Italy

Gaetano Basso

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Matthias Bing

European Central Bank (ECB)

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Reamonn P Lydon

Central Bank of Ireland ( email )

P.O. Box 559
Dame Street
Dublin, 2
Ireland

Justina Zajankauskaitė

Bank of Lithuania

Totoriu 4
Vilnius, LT-01121
Lithuania

Kristupas Pribuišis

Bank of Lithuania

Mojca Lindič

Bank of Slovenia

Slovenska cesta 35
Slovenija, 1505
Slovenia

Gasper Ploj

Bank of Slovenia

Marios Polemidiotis

Central Bank of Cyprus

80 Kennedy Ave
1076 Nicosia
Cyprus

Harri Pönkä

Bank of Finland ( email )

P.O. Box 160
Helsinki 00101
Finland

Meri Obstbaum

Bank of Finland

Pavlos Petroulas

Bank of Greece ( email )

21 E. Venizelos Avenue
GR 102 50 Athens
Greece

Cindy Veiga Nunes

Banque Centrale du Luxembourg ( email )

2, boulevard Royal
Luxembourg, L-2983
Luxembourg

Michal Doliak

National Bank of Slovakia

Imricha Karvasa 1
813 25 Bratislava
Slovakia

Jan Beka

National Bank of Slovakia

Aurora Monza

European Central Bank (ECB)

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Marc Roca i Llevadot

European Central Bank (ECB)

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Gaetano Polichetti

European Central Bank (ECB)

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Nicola Benatti

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Bruno Fagandini

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Peter Healy

European Central Bank (ECB)

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