Maghreb's Renewable Power Future for Climate Mitigation: Insights from the Times-Mage Model

Abstract

In the context of climate mitigation, The Maghreb region needs to shift to renewable energy sources (RES) for sustainable power. This paper examines the deployment of renewable energy in the Maghreb region (Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria), assessing the cost-effectiveness and the economic impact of RES goals defined in Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies and exploring the feasibility of a 100% renewable power sector. TIMES-MAGe linear optimization model was developed considering countries' energy potentials and technologies regional data. Results show an alignment of 2030 planned capacities with the renewable electricity targets, but long-term goals require an optimistic renewables capacity factor, with the model outcomes presenting a 5% difference in 2050 for Morocco and Tunisia compared to policy targets. Optimizing national capacity for renewable electricity goals reveals possibilities for adjustments, with a higher representation of onshore wind for Tunisia and solar PV in 2050 for Morocco, and convergence in concentrated solar power plant capacities compared with the national plans. Cost-effectiveness enables Algeria to exceed its renewable electricity goal from 27% up to 46%, albeit below the Tunisia and Morocco goals due to endogenous natural gas. Both Morocco and Tunisia can achieve 100% renewable power by 2050, utilizing 60% of RES potentials. Conversely, Algeria faces challenges, requiring over 119 GW of renewable capacity, 53 % above existing literature-defined potential. TIMES-MAGe results show 18% lower electricity unitary costs than findings from national plans, while full decarbonization entails higher upfront investments, increasing unitary costs of electricity between 51%-77% in 2050.

Keywords: Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Power System, energy system modelling, Renewable Energy Sources, 100% renewable electricity. nationally determined contribution (NDC), Long-term low-emission development pathways (LT-LEDS)