Unpacking the Impact of Ride-Hailing Platforms on Urban Congestion: The Mediating Role of City Bus Services and Moderated Mediation by Urban Factors

Abstract

Ride-hailing platforms such as Uber and Lyft have significantly impacted traffic congestion in urban transportation systems. This study investigates how the decline in city bus ridership due to ride-hailing services contributes to urban congestion, and how this mediated relationship is influenced by various urban factors. Using a causal mediation framework, we analyze the effects of UberX on congestion across 48 cities in the United States from 2012 to 2017. Our findings indicate that UberX's entry increases congestion, with approximately 4.0% of this effect mediated by reduced bus utilization, highlighting a statistically significant role of public transit in exacerbating congestion. Furthermore, the magnitude of both indirect and direct effects varies based on city-specific factors, including population density, gas prices, city innovativeness, the availability of rail systems, and the volume of international visitors. This study highlights the need to address bus ridership declines to mitigate the negative externalities of ride-hailing services and illustrates the complex dynamics shaping urban congestion.

Keywords: Ride-hailing platforms, Public transit, Urban congestion