US-China Economic Standoff in 2025: Decoupling, Disruption, and Global Macroeconomic Spillovers

Abstract

This paper investigates the evolving macroeconomic dynamics between the United States and China in 2025, focusing on their intensifying strategic and economic rivalry. Through a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative scenario analysis and quantitative forecasting models (ARIMA, Monte Carlo, Granger Causality), this study identifies the core assumptions, policy shifts, and market consequences of partial economic decoupling. Two major case studies, semiconductor trade restrictions and China's real estate debt crisis, are explored in depth to assess systemic risk. The paper further outlines potential market responses, forecasting scenarios through 2030, and offers policy recommendations for navigating a fractured global economy. With implications for global trade, inflation, and capital flows, this research aims to serve as a core macroeconomic reference for academics, investors, and policy analysts.

Keywords: US-China decoupling, macroeconomic forecasting, semiconductor restrictions, real estate crisis, geopolitical risk, trade war, ARIMA, Monte Carlo simulation, dual circulation, economic policy uncertainty, Decoupling, China Real Estate Crisis, Semiconductor Supply Chain