Why We Change Routes: Psychological Crowding and Transit Decisions in Toronto

Abstract

Transit route choice behaviour is influenced not only by objective service attributes such as travel time, but also by subjective perceptions of comfort and crowding. While traditional models often rely on fixed crowding multipliers to capture discomfort, they overlook the role of latent psychological factors that drive heterogeneous preferences among users. This study proposes a discrete choice modelling framework that integrates psychological constructs into the valuation of onboard crowding through endogenized crowding multipliers. Leveraging stated preference data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), two hybrid choice models are estimated to examine how pandemic-related factors such as vaccination status, fear of infection, and compliance attitudes toward protective measures influence route choice decisions. The results reveal significant behavioural heterogeneity in crowding aversion, demonstrating that discomfort from crowding is shaped not only by physical conditions but also by psychological states. The proposed framework offers a behaviourally consistent approach to modelling transit route choice under perceived crowding and provides actionable insights for designing more resilient and user-sensitive public transit systems.

Keywords: Transit route choice, out-of-vehicle-travel-time (OVTT), In-vehicle-travel-time (IVTT), Crowding discomfort, Hybrid choice model