Evaluating Anti-Poverty Programs

Abstract

The paper critically reviews the methods available for the ex-post counterfactual analysis of programs that are assigned exclusively to individuals, households or locations. The discussion covers both experimental and nonexperimental methods (including propensity-score matching, discontinuity designs, double and triple differences and instrumental variables). Two main lessons emerge: Firstly, despite the claims of advocates, no single method dominates; rigorous, policy-relevant evaluations should be open-minded about methodology. Secondly, future efforts to draw more useful lessons from evaluations will call for more policy-relevant measures and deeper explanations of measured impacts than are possible from the classic ("black box") assessment of mean impact.