The Internationalization of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment

31 Pages Posted: 26 Sep 2006

See all articles by Linda S. Goldberg

Linda S. Goldberg

Federal Reserve Bank of New York; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Cédric Tille

Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (HEI)

Date Written: August 2006

Abstract

The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through to prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and its trading partners. With low exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices and high exchange rate pass-through to the local prices of countries consuming U.S. exports, the effect of dollar depreciation on real trade flows is dominated by an adjustment in U.S. export quantities, which increase as U.S. goods become cheaper in the rest of the world. Real U.S. imports are affected less because U.S. prices are more insulated from exchange rate movements - pass-through is low and dollar invoicing is high. In relation to prices, the effects on the U.S. terms of trade are limited: U.S. exporters earn the same amount of dollars for each unit shipped abroad, and U.S. consumers do not encounter more expensive imports. Movements in dollar exchange rates also affect the international trade transactions of countries invoicing some of their trade in dollars, even when these countries are not transacting directly with the United States.

Keywords: exchange rate, pass-through, international role of the dollar, trade balance, current account, vehicle currency

JEL Classification: F3, F4

Suggested Citation

Goldberg, Linda S. and Tille, Cedric, The Internationalization of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment (August 2006). FRB of New York Staff Report No. 255. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=932568 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.932568

Linda S. Goldberg (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Bank of New York ( email )

33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
United States
212-720-2836 (Phone)
212-720-6831 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
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Cedric Tille

Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (HEI) ( email )

PO Box 136
Geneva, CH-1211
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/cedrictilleheid/home

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