The Dangers of Overconfidence and Absolute Certainty in the Age of Post-Truth, Junk Science, and Arrogance

Abstract

A major threat to the success of a society or organization is the feeling of certainty. It is clear that people overestimate how much they actually know. This paper will examine the dangers of certainty. People who have too much confidence in their opinions may actually have a mental flaw that can be dangerous. Moreover, much of the research in areas such as medicine and management cannot be replicated and turns out to be untrue. In fact, doctors only make about 15% of decisions using scientifically valid studies.

Keywords: Moral Certainty, Overconfidence, Misinformation, Availability Bias, Confirmation Bias, Intellectual Humility, Evidence-Based Management, Evidence-Based Medicine, Willful Ignorance, Hyperpartisanship, Donald Trump

JEL Classification: A20, C44, D70, D81, G11