Download This PaperCompliance with Covid-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration
27 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2020 Last revised: 6 May 2025
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Compliance with COVID-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration
Compliance with Covid-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration
Expectations, reference points, and compliance with COVID-19 social distancing measures
Abstract
We study how intentions to comply with the self-isolation restrictions enacted in Italy in response to the COVID-19 crisis respond to the length of their possible extension. Based on a survey of a representative sample of Italian residents (N=894), we find that respondents who are positively surprised by a given hypothetical extension (i.e. the extension is shorter than what they expected) are more willing to increase their self-isolation. In contrast, negative surprises (extensions longer than expected) relate with a lower willingness to comply. In a context where individual compliance has collective benefits, but full enforcement is costly and controversial, communication and persuasion have a fundamental role. Our findings provide insights to public authorities on how to announce lockdown measures and manage people's expectations.
Keywords: social distancing, compliance, expectations, COVID-19, behavioural change
JEL Classification: H12, I12, I18, D84, D91
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Mario Macis
Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School ( email )
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IZA ( email )
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CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )
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