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University of Kiel
Kiel Institute for the World Economy - IFW
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sticky information, Dynare, macro-processor, lagged expectations
Financial cycles, financial crisis, global co-movement, dynamic factor models, time-varying parameters, macro-finance
Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model, Business Cycles, Great Recession, Leading Indicators, Turning Points, GDP-Nowcasting, GDP-Forecasting
effort,labor utilization,labor productivity,inflation
DSGE models, forecasting, model uncertainty, forecast combination, density forecasts, real-time data, Greenbook
Monetary Policy Rules, IV Quantile Regression, Real-Time Data
Energy crisis, German natural gas market, narrative sign restrictions, natural gas price, structural scenario analysis, vector-autoregression
energy crisis, German natural gas market, narrative sign restrictions, natural gas price, structural scenario analysis, vector-autoregression
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fiscal policy, Macroeconomic models, model comparison, model uncertainty, monetary policy, policy rules, robustness
macroeconomic models, model uncertainty, policy rules, robustness, monetary policy, fiscal policy, model comparison
budget deficit, fiscal consolidation strategy, fiscal policy, government debt, U.S. budget
exchange rate channel, monetary policy transmission, open economy, strategic complementarity, trade integration
Monetary Policy Transmission, Open Economy, Trade Integration, Exchange Rate Channel, Strategic Complementarity, Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Bayesian estimation, business cycles, forecast distribution, forecasting, heterogeneous beliefs, model uncertainty
Forecasting, Business Cycles, Heterogeneous Beliefs, Forecast Distribution, Model Uncertainty, Bayesian Estimation
