Andrew J. G. Cairns

Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics

Edinburgh, Scotland EH14 4AS

United Kingdom

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

41

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SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 1,784

in Total Papers Citations

338

CROSSREF CITATIONS

376

Scholarly Papers (41)

1.

A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data from England & Wales and the United States

Number of pages: 77 Posted: 11 Feb 2009
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), Pacific Global Advisors and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Downloads 1,453 (18,339)
Citation 89

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Stochastic mortality, CBD-Perks models, Lee-Carter models, age effect, period effect, cohort effect, maximum likelihood, Bayes Information Criterion, robustness

2.

Default Funds in UK Defined Contribution Pension Plans

Financial Analysts Journal, July/August 2007
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 10 Sep 2007
Alistair Byrne, Kevin Dowd, David P. Blake and Andrew J. G. Cairns
University of Edinburgh - Business School, Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), City, University of London and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 428 (95,082)
Citation 3

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defined contribution, default funds, asset allocation, lifecycle investing

3.

Mortality Density Forecasts: An Analysis of Six Stochastic Mortality Models

Pensions Institute Discussion Paper No. PI-0801
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 10 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 10 Jul 2009
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), Pacific Global Advisors, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and J.P. Morgan
Downloads 398 (103,419)
Citation 56

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Stochastic mortality model, cohort erect, fan charts, model risk, fore-casting, model selection criteria

4.

Modelling and Management of Mortality Risk: A Review

Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Vol. 2-3, pp. 79-113, 2008, Pensions Institute Discussion Paper No. PI-0814
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 10 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 16 Apr 2009
Andrew J. G. Cairns, David P. Blake and Kevin Dowd
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London and Nottingham University Business School (NUBS)
Downloads 347 (120,662)
Citation 15

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Stochastic mortality models, Short-rate models, Market models, Cohort effect, SCOR

5.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 12 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 14 Feb 2021
Andrew J. G. Cairns, David P. Blake, Amy Kessler and Marsha Kessler
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, Prudential Financial and M Kessler Group
Downloads 299 (141,831)
Citation 7

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COVID-19, all-cause mortality, frailty, co-morbidities, mortality deprivation, accelerated deaths model

6.

The Birth of the Life Market

Pensions Institute Discussion Paper No. PI-0807
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 28 Apr 2009
David P. Blake, Andrew J. G. Cairns and Kevin Dowd
City, University of London, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and Nottingham University Business School (NUBS)
Downloads 274 (154,474)
Citation 7

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Sharing Longevity Risk: Why Governments Should Issue Longevity Bonds

Pensions Institute Discussion Paper No. PI-1002
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 01 Dec 2011
David P. Blake, Tom Boardman and Andrew J. G. Cairns
City, University of London, affiliation not provided to SSRN and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 238 (177,091)
Citation 17

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Longevity risk, longevity bonds, public policy, political economy

Sharing Longevity Risk: Why Governments Should Issue Longevity Bonds

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 22 Jun 2020
David P. Blake, Tom Boardman and Andrew J. G. Cairns
City, University of London, City University London - Sir John Cass Business School and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 24 (682,635)
Citation 2

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Longevity risk, longevity bonds, public policy, political econom

8.

Options on Normal Underlyings with an Application to the Pricing of Survivor Swaptions

Pensions Institute Discussion Paper PI-0713
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 10 Feb 2009
Paul Dawson, Kevin Dowd, Andrew J. G. Cairns and David P. Blake
Kent State University, Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and City, University of London
Downloads 260 (162,926)
Citation 4

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9.

There's No Time Like the Present: The Cost of Delaying Retirement Saving

Financial Services Review, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2006
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 10 Sep 2007
Alistair Byrne, Kevin Dowd, David P. Blake and Andrew J. G. Cairns
University of Edinburgh - Business School, Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), City, University of London and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 252 (168,124)

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retirement saving, defined contribution, stochastic simulation

10.

The Stakeholder Pension Lottery: An Analysis of the Default Funds in UK Stakeholder Pension Schemes

EFA 2005 Moscow Meetings Paper, Cass Business School Research Paper
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 28 Jan 2005
Alistair Byrne, Kevin Dowd, David P. Blake and Andrew J. G. Cairns
University of Edinburgh - Business School, Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), City, University of London and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 226 (186,448)

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pension schemes, defined contribution, default funds, strategic asset allocation, lifestyle profile, stochastic simulation

11.

Backtesting Stochastic Mortality Models: An Ex-Post Evaluation of Multi-Period Ahead-Density Forecasts

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 29 Apr 2009 Last Revised: 10 Jul 2009
Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, Pacific Global Advisors, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and J.P. Morgan
Downloads 213 (197,206)
Citation 31

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backtesting, forecasting performance, mortality models

12.

Completing the Survivor Derivatives Market: A General Pricing Framework

Pensions Institute Discussion Paper No. PI-0712
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 10 Feb 2009
Paul Dawson, Kevin Dowd, Andrew J. G. Cairns and David P. Blake
Kent State University, Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and City, University of London
Downloads 174 (235,983)
Citation 1

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13.

The Distribution of Future Annuity Prices under Interest-Rate and Longevity Risks

Pension Institute Discussion Paper No. PI-0823
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 10 Feb 2009
Kevin Dowd, David P. Blake and Andrew J. G. Cairns
Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), City, University of London and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 147 (271,349)
Citation 2

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longevity risk, interest-rate risk, annuity prices, Taylor series

14.

Turning Pensions Plans into Pension Planes: What Investment Strategy Designers of Defined Contribution Pension Plans Can Learn from Commercial Aircraft Designers

Number of pages: 86 Posted: 29 Apr 2009
David P. Blake, Andrew J. G. Cairns and Kevin Dowd
City, University of London, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and Nottingham University Business School (NUBS)
Downloads 140 (281,863)
Citation 6

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15.

Evaluating the Goodness of Fit of Stochastic Mortality Models

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 04 May 2009
Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, Pacific Global Advisors, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and J.P. Morgan
Downloads 139 (283,468)
Citation 22

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goodness of fit, mortality models

16.

Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2019-20 Update

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics
Number of pages: 111 Posted: 06 Apr 2021
David P. Blake and Andrew J. G. Cairns
City, University of London and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 130 (298,320)
Citation 1

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Longevity risk, life market, capital markets

17.
Downloads 104 (349,193)
Citation 6

Longevity Hedge Effectiveness: A Decomposition

Pensions Institute Discussion Paper No. PI-1106
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 01 Dec 2011
Andrew J. G. Cairns, Kevin Dowd, David P. Blake and Guy Coughlan
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City University London - Sir John Cass Business School, City, University of London and Pacific Global Advisors
Downloads 89 (388,878)
Citation 3

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hedge effectiveness, correlation, mark-to-model, valuation model, simulation, value hedging, longevity risk, stochastic mortality, population basis risk, recalibration risk

Longevity Hedge Effectiveness: A Decomposition

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 22 Jun 2020
Andrew J. G. Cairns, David P. Blake, Kevin Dowd and Guy Coughlan
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, Durham Business School and Pacific Global Advisors
Downloads 15 (758,795)
Citation 4

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Hedge effectiveness; Correlation; Value hedging; Valuation model; Longevity risk; Population basis risk; Recalibration risk

18.

Taking the Long View

Number of pages: 4 Posted: 06 May 2009 Last Revised: 10 Jul 2009
David P. Blake, Tom Boardman, Andrew J. G. Cairns and Kevin Dowd
City, University of London, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and Nottingham University Business School (NUBS)
Downloads 92 (377,751)
Citation 2

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19.

Facing Up to Uncertain Life Expectancy: The Longevity Fan Charts

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 11 Feb 2009
Kevin Dowd, David P. Blake and Andrew J. G. Cairns
Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), City, University of London and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 82 (404,811)
Citation 13

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Phantoms Never Die: Living with Unreliable Population Data

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 2016
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 22 Mar 2016
Andrew J. G. Cairns, David P. Blake, Kevin Dowd and Amy R. Kessler
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, Nottingham University Business School (NUBS) and Prudential Retirement
Downloads 33 (619,119)

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Baby boom; Cohort–births–deaths exposures methodology; Convexity adjustment ratio; Deaths; Graphical diagnostics; Population data

Phantoms Never Die: Living with Unreliable Population Data

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 21 Oct 2015
Andrew J. G. Cairns, David P. Blake, Kevin Dowd and Amy R. Kessler
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, City University London - Sir John Cass Business School and Prudential Retirement
Downloads 20 (715,108)
Citation 11

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Baby boom, cohort-births-deaths exposures methodology, convexity adjustment ratio, deaths, graphical diagnostics, population data

Phantoms Never Die: Living With Unreliable Population Data

J. R. Statist. Soc. A (2016), 179, Part 4, pp. 975–1005
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 23 Jun 2020
Andrew J. G. Cairns, David P. Blake, Kevin Dowd and Amy Kessler
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, Durham Business School and Prudential Financial
Downloads 8 (827,309)
Citation 1

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Baby Boom; Cohort–Births–Deaths Exposures Methodology; Convexity Adjustment Ratio; Deaths; Graphical Diagnostics; Population Data

Still Living With Mortality: The Longevity Risk Transfer Market After One Decade

Number of pages: 86 Posted: 14 Nov 2018
David P. Blake, Andrew J. G. Cairns, Kevin Dowd and Amy R. Kessler
City, University of London, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City University London - Sir John Cass Business School and Prudential Retirement
Downloads 26 (667,354)
Citation 10

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Buy-Outs; Buy-Ins; Longevity Insurance; Longevity Bonds; Longevity Swaps; q-Forwards; Tail-Risk Protection; Basis Risk; Credit Risk; Regulatory Capital; Collateral; Liquidity; Stochastic Mortality Models; Longevity Risk Premium; Longevity-Linked Securities; Reinsurance Sidecars

Still Living with Mortality: The Longevity Risk Transfer Market After One Decade

Number of pages: 86 Posted: 12 Mar 2021
David P. Blake, Andrew J. G. Cairns, Kevin Dowd and Amy Kessler
City, University of London, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, Durham Business School and Prudential Financial
Downloads 15 (758,795)

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Longevity Risk; Buy-Outs; Buy-Ins; Longevity Insurance; Longevity Bonds; Longevity Swaps; q-Forwards; Tail-Risk Protection; Basis Risk; Credit Risk; Regulatory Capital; Collateral; Liquidity; Stochastic Mortality Models; Longevity Risk Premium; Longevity-Linked Securities; Reinsurance Sidec

Still Living with Mortality: The Longevity Risk Transfer Market after One Decade

Number of pages: 86 Posted: 16 Mar 2020
David P. Blake, Andrew J. G. Cairns, Kevin Dowd and Amy Kessler
City, University of London, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, Durham Business School and Prudential Financial
Downloads 13 (777,774)

Abstract:

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Longevity Risk; Buy-Outs; Buy-Ins; Longevity Insurance; Longevity Bonds; Longevity Swaps; q-Forwards; Tail-Risk Protection; Basis Risk; Credit Risk; Regulatory Capital; Collateral; Liquidity; Stochastic Mortality Models; Longevity Risk Premium; Longevity-Linked Securities; Reinsurance Sidecars

22.

The Myth of Methuselah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 11 Feb 2009
Kevin Dowd, David P. Blake and Andrew J. G. Cairns
Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), City, University of London and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 50 (518,599)

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mortality, fan charts, longevity risk, parameter risk

23.

Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in Mortality Using a New Affluence Index

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 22 May 2019 Last Revised: 01 Jun 2020
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, Aarhus University - CREATES, Aarhus University, City, University of London and City University London - Sir John Cass Business School
Downloads 42 (555,956)
Citation 1

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Affluence index, Danish mortality data, CBD-X model, gravity model

24.

Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2018-19 Update

Number of pages: 60 Posted: 07 Jul 2020
David P. Blake and Andrew J. G. Cairns
City, University of London and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 37 (581,691)

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25.

Longevity Bonds: Financial Engineering, Valuation, and Hedging

Journal of Risk & Insurance, Vol. 73, No. 4, pp. 647-672, December 2006
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 29 Nov 2006
David P. Blake, Kevin Dowd, Andrew J. G. Cairns and Richard D. MacMinn
City, University of London, Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and National Chengchi University
Downloads 35 (592,841)
Citation 7

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26.

A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality With Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration

Journal of Risk & Insurance, Vol. 73, No. 4, pp. 687-718, December 2006
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 29 Nov 2006
Andrew J. G. Cairns, David P. Blake and Kevin Dowd
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London and Nottingham University Business School (NUBS)
Downloads 33 (604,194)
Citation 37

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27.

Survivor Swaps

Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 73, No. 1, pp. 1-17, March 2006
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 08 May 2006
Kevin Dowd, David P. Blake, Andrew J. G. Cairns and Paul Dawson
Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), City, University of London, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and Kent State University
Downloads 30 (622,271)
Citation 9

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28.

A Family of Term-Structure Models for Long-Term Risk Management and Derivative Pricing

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 11 Jul 2004
Andrew J. G. Cairns
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 30 (622,271)

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Turning Pension Plans into Pension Planes: What Investment Strategy Designers of Defined Contribution Pension Plans can Learn from Commercial Aircraft Designers

Number of pages: 86 Posted: 19 Jun 2020
David P. Blake, Andrew J. G. Cairns and Kevin Dowd
City, University of London, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and Durham Business School
Downloads 6 (848,191)

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30.

A Simple Approach to Project Extreme Old Age Mortality Rates and Value Mortality-Related Financial Instruments

Pensions Institute Discussion Paper, PI-1907, December 2019
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 16 Mar 2020
Kevin Dowd, Andrew J. G. Cairns and David P. Blake
Durham Business School, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and City, University of London
Downloads 23 (670,011)

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Age-Period-Cohort mortality model, age effect, projection, extreme old age, term annuity

31.

Longevity Hedging 101: A Framework for Longevity Basis Risk Analysis and Hedge Effectiveness

North American Actuarial Journal, Volume 15, Number 2, 2011
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 10 Jul 2020
Pacific Global Advisors, J.P. Morgan, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Kozhikode, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London and City University London - Sir John Cass Business School
Downloads 22 (677,572)
Citation 9

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Longevity hedging, longevity index, longevity basis risk, stochastic mortality, two populations, hedge effectiveness

32.

Longevity Risk and Hedging Solutions

In Georges Dionne (Ed.), Handbook of Insurance, second edition, Springer, New York, 2013
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 26 Nov 2020
Pacific Global Advisors, City, University of London, National Chengchi University, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and Durham Business School
Downloads 17 (716,215)
Citation 1

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33.

Robust Hedging of Longevity Risk

Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 80, Issue 3, pp. 621-648, 2013
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 30 Aug 2013
Andrew J. G. Cairns
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 4 (835,731)
Citation 7

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34.
Downloads 4 (835,731)
Citation 22

Survivor Derivatives: A Consistent Pricing Framework

Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 77, Issue 3, pp. 579-596, September 2010
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 04 Aug 2010
Paul Dawson, Kevin Dowd, Andrew J. G. Cairns and David P. Blake
Kent State University, City University London - Sir John Cass Business School, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and City, University of London
Downloads 4 (869,856)
Citation 4

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Survivor Derivatives: A Consistent Pricing Framework

Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 77, Issue 3, pp. 579-596, 2010
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 08 Mar 2018
Paul Dawson, Kevin Dowd, Andrew J. G. Cairns and David P. Blake
Kent State University, City University London - Sir John Cass Business School, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and City, University of London
Downloads 0
Citation 9

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35.

Getting Feedback on Defined Contribution Pension Plans

Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 76, Issue 2, pp. 385-417, June 2009
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 05 May 2009
Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald and Andrew J. G. Cairns
Heriot-Watt University and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics
Downloads 3 (846,646)

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36.

A General Framework for Analysing the Mortality Experience of a Large Portfolio of Lives: with An Application to the UK Universities Superannuation Scheme

European Actuarial Journal, 2022; https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-022-00309-1
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 24 May 2022
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, Durham Business School, Universities Superannuation Scheme, Universities Superannuation Scheme and Universities Superannuation Scheme
Downloads 1 (873,108)

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Longevity risk, Pensioners’ mortality, Index of multiple deprivation, Age standardised mortality rate, Occupation, Graphical diagnostics

37.

The New Life Market

Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 80, Issue 3, pp. 501-558, 2013
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 30 Aug 2013
City, University of London, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, Pacific Global Advisors, City University London - Sir John Cass Business School and National Chengchi University
Downloads 1 (873,108)
Citation 10

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38.

Modeling and Management of Longevity Risk

Published in Maurer, R., O. Mitchell, and P. Hammond (Eds.) (2014). Recreating Sustainable Retirement: Resilience, Solvency, and Tail Risk. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press., Pension Research Council Working Paper, PRC WP2013-19
Posted: 09 Oct 2013 Last Revised: 03 Apr 2020
Andrew J. G. Cairns
Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics

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Longevity Risk, Stochastic Mortality Models, Robustness, Risk Management

39.

A Gravity Model of Mortality Rates for Two Related Populations

North American Actuarial Journal, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2011
Posted: 24 Jan 2012
City University London - Sir John Cass Business School, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, City, University of London, Pacific Global Advisors and J.P. Morgan

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40.

Perspectives: Designing a Defined-Contribution Plan - What to Learn from Aircraft Designers

Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 65, No. 1, 2009
Posted: 31 Jan 2009
David P. Blake, Andrew J. G. Cairns and Kevin Dowd
City, University of London, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics and Nottingham University Business School (NUBS)

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Portfolio Management: Asset/Liability Management; Advocacy, Regulatory, and Legislative Issues: Advocacy Issues

41.

Default Funds in U.K. Defined-Contribution Plans

Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 63, No. 4, pp. 40-51, July/August 2007
Posted: 25 Jul 2007
Alistair Byrne, Kevin Dowd, David P. Blake and Andrew J. G. Cairns
University of Edinburgh - Business School, Nottingham University Business School (NUBS), City, University of London and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics

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Private Wealth Management, Asset Allocation, Portfolio Management, Other