Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges

40 Pages Posted: 4 Jan 2008

See all articles by Teresa Leal

Teresa Leal

University of Huelva

Javier J. Pérez

Banco de España - Research Department

Mika Tujula

European Central Bank (ECB)

Jean-Pierre Vidal

European Central Bank (ECB)

Date Written: December 2007

Abstract

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in the EU multilateral budgetary surveillance. In view of the increased prominence and sensitivity of budgetary forecasts, which may lead to them being influenced by strategic and political factors, this paper discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner's perspective and places them in the context of the related literature.

Keywords: Fiscal policies, government budget, forecasting, monitoring

JEL Classification: H6, E62, C53

Suggested Citation

Leal, Teresa and Perez, Javier J. and Tujula, Mika and Vidal, Jean-Pierre, Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges (December 2007). ECB Working Paper No. 843, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1054881 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1054881

Teresa Leal (Contact Author)

University of Huelva ( email )

Spain

Javier J. Perez

Banco de España - Research Department ( email )

Alcala 50
28014 Madrid
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://www.bde.es/investigador/staff/95.htm

Mika Tujula

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Jean-Pierre Vidal

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

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