Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector

Journal of Transportation and Statistics, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2003

Posted: 13 May 2008

See all articles by Kajal Lahiri

Kajal Lahiri

State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, College of Arts and Sciences, Economics

H.O. Stekler

George Washington University - Department of Economics

Vincent Yao

Georgia State University - J. Mack Robinson College of Business

Peg Young

U.S. Department of Transportation

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Abstract

In this paper, we develop a monthly output index for the U.S. transportation sector from January 1980 through April 2002, covering air, rail, water, truck, transit, and pipeline activities. Separate indices for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index matches very well with the annual transportation output figures produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The strong cyclical movements of transportation output appear to be more synchronized with the growth slowdowns in the U.S. economy than full-fledged recessions. Our index led the turning points of the six National Bureau of Economic Research-defined growth cycles over the period with an average lead time of six months at peaks and five months at troughs.

Keywords: transportation output, Fisher Ideal Index,business cycles, growth cycles, freight transportation.

Suggested Citation

Lahiri, Kajal and Stekler, H.O. and Yao, Vincent and Young, Peg, Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1131069

Kajal Lahiri (Contact Author)

State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, College of Arts and Sciences, Economics ( email )

Department of Economics
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HOME PAGE: http://www.albany.edu/~klahiri

H.O. Stekler

George Washington University - Department of Economics ( email )

2115 G ST NW
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202-994-6147 (Fax)

Vincent Yao

Georgia State University - J. Mack Robinson College of Business ( email )

35 Broad Street
Atlanta, GA 30303-3083
United States

Peg Young

U.S. Department of Transportation ( email )

Bureau of Transportation Statistics
400 Seventh Street, S.W.
Washington, DC 20590
United States
(202) 366-2483 (Phone)

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