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The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming

4 Pages Posted: 10 Oct 2011 Last revised: 14 Dec 2017

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Daniel G. Goldstein

Microsoft Research New York City; London Business School

Date Written: October 10, 2011

Abstract

Where the problem is not expert underestimation of randomness, but more: the tools themselves used in regression analyses and similar methods underestimate fat tails, hence the randomness in the data. We should avoid imparting psychological explanations to errors in the use of statistical methods.

Suggested Citation

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas and Goldstein, Daniel G., The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses (October 10, 2011). International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1941792

Nassim Taleb (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Daniel Goldstein

Microsoft Research New York City ( email )

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