The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses
International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
4 Pages Posted: 10 Oct 2011 Last revised: 14 Dec 2017
Date Written: October 10, 2011
Where the problem is not expert underestimation of randomness, but more: the tools themselves used in regression analyses and similar methods underestimate fat tails, hence the randomness in the data. We should avoid imparting psychological explanations to errors in the use of statistical methods.
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