Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank

37 Pages Posted: 18 Apr 2016

See all articles by Jens Iversen

Jens Iversen

Centre for Economic and Business Research - Copenhagen Business School; Aarhus University - School of Business and Social Sciences

Stefan Laseen

Sveriges Riksbank - Monetary Policy Department

Henrik Lundvall

DAV Institute of Management - National Institute of Economic Research

Ulf Söderström

Central Bank of Sweden - Research Department

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 2016

Abstract

We evaluate forecasts made in real time to support monetary policy decisions at Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) from 2007 to 2013. We compare forecasts made with a DSGE model and a BVAR model with judgemental forecasts published by the Riksbank, and we evaluate the usefulness of conditioning information for the model-based forecasts. We also study the perceived usefulness of model forecasts for central bank policymakers when producing the judgemental forecasts.

Keywords: Forecast evaluation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Real-time forecasting

JEL Classification: E37, E52

Suggested Citation

Iversen, Jens and Laseen, Stefan and Lundvall, Henrik and Söderström, Ulf, Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank (March 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2766531

Jens Iversen (Contact Author)

Centre for Economic and Business Research - Copenhagen Business School ( email )

Porcelaenshaven 16A
DK-2000 Frederiksberg
Denmark

Aarhus University - School of Business and Social Sciences ( email )

Building 350
DK-8000 Aarhus C
Denmark

Stefan Laseen

Sveriges Riksbank - Monetary Policy Department ( email )

S-103 37 Stockholm
Sweden

Henrik Lundvall

DAV Institute of Management - National Institute of Economic Research ( email )

Box 3116
Stockholm, 10362
Sweden

Ulf Söderström

Central Bank of Sweden - Research Department ( email )

Stockholm, 103 37
Sweden
+46 8 787 0829 (Phone)
+46 8 21 05 31 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.riksbank.se/research/soderstrom

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