Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making

Abstract

This chapter has described tools to improve forecasting of trends and of the effects of interventions. Among these methods, role playing and rule-based forecasting have seldom been used lot environmental forecasting. Role playing is appropriate when forecasting the outcome of a situation involving conflict among various parties. Rule-based forecasting is relevant when the forecasters have time-series data and relevant domain knowledge, and it is especially useful when recent trends conflict with expectations. A key theme running throughout these procedures is objectivity. The attainment of objectivity is critical in the use of judgment. The route to objectivity is through structure, and it is enhanced by using quantitative methods, using structured judgment as an input to these quantitative methods, providing full disclosure, and employing auditing procedures, such as review panels.

Keywords: Forecasting, forecasting trends, role playing, rule-based forecasting, environmental decision making