Determinants of Poverty Vulnerability in Uganda

Abstract

Ugandan data shows poverty to be entrenched in rural areas and in large households. Households with heads exposed to education, an improved health status, less reliance on agriculture as the most important source of earnings, access to electricity for lighting and, the presence of markets to sell produce in the community experience improved household well-being. The data also confirms two known stylized facts regarding poverty vulnerability. First, households in the Northern region have a higher probability of being poor than those in Central, Eastern, and Western regions. Second, the 'annual cropping and cattle northern' and 'annual cropping and cattle Teso' zones are the agro ecological zones that are positively correlated with poverty vulnerability. The fact that residence in rural areas is associated with higher incidence of poverty suggests that promotion of off-farm employment (for example, through rural electrification) would help reduce vulnerability.

Keywords: Poverty vulnerability, logistic regression, Uganda

JEL Classification: I32, Q18