Does High Inflation Cause Central Bankers to Lose Their Job? Evidence Based on a New Data Set

CESifo Working Paper No. 2045

KOF Working Paper No. 167

24 Pages Posted: 3 Jul 2007

See all articles by Axel Dreher

Axel Dreher

Heidelberg University

Jan-Egbert Sturm

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Jakob de Haan

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business; De Nederlandsche Bank; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: June 2007

Abstract

This paper introduces new data on the term in office of central bank governors in 137 countries for 1970-2004. Our panel models show that the probability that a central bank governor is replaced in a particular year is positively related to the share of the term in office elapsed, political and regime instability, the occurrence of elections, and inflation. The latter result suggests that the turnover rate of central bank governors (TOR) is a poor indicator of central bank independence. This is confirmed in models for cross-section inflation in which TOR becomes insignificant once its endogeneity is taken into account.

Keywords: central bank governors, central bank independence, inflation

JEL Classification: E5

Suggested Citation

Dreher, Axel and Sturm, Jan-Egbert and de Haan, Jakob, Does High Inflation Cause Central Bankers to Lose Their Job? Evidence Based on a New Data Set (June 2007). CESifo Working Paper No. 2045; KOF Working Paper No. 167. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=997972

Axel Dreher (Contact Author)

Heidelberg University ( email )

Grabengasse 1
Heidelberg, 69117
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.axel-dreher.de

Jan-Egbert Sturm

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich ( email )

Zurich
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://www.kof.ethz.ch

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.cesifo.de

Jakob de Haan

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business ( email )

PO Box 800
Groningen, 9700 AV
Netherlands
+31 0 50 3633706 (Fax)

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 98
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

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