Channel Stickiness in Omnichannel Retail: Temporary Shifts or Lasting Changes?

Abstract

Temporary disruptions offer a rare opportunity to understand the durability of consumer shopping habits. In this study, we examine consumer channel-switching dynamics in an omnichannel retail environment in response to temporary disruption. Leveraging a proprietary dataset of over 14 million transactions spanning store closures and subsequent reopenings during the COVID-19 pandemic, we employ a quasi-experimental generalized synthetic control approach to assess shifts in customer purchasing patterns. Our analysis reveals a dramatic but fleeting digital surge. Although online sales spiked during forced closures, especially among traditionally offline shoppers, sales reverted almost entirely to offline channels once stores reopened. These findings challenge industry narratives forecasting a permanent pivot to e-commerce and instead highlight the enduring "stickiness" of in-person shopping. We also uncover nuanced differences in channel-switching across socioeconomic groups, with higher-income and higher-education segments exhibiting greater agility in navigating between channels. Complementing these aggregate patterns, our customer-level analysis of predisruption offline-centric shoppers reveals that while most reverted to in-person shopping post-reopening, the small minority who transitioned online generated substantially higher customer value. These patterns, observed under extreme disruption, help retailers distinguish between temporary adaptation and lasting change, offering insights for channel strategy in both crisis and calm. Overall, our study underscores the continued importance of robust offline channels as a critical cornerstone of omnichannel strategies, even in the face of external shocks.

Keywords: e-commerce, generalized synthetic control, omnichannel, retail operations