University of Cambridge - MRC Biostatistics Unit, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, UK Health Security Agency - COVID-19 National Epidemiology Cell, UK Health Security Agency - COVID-19 National Epidemiology Cell, University of Oxford - Department of Computer Science, Public Health England Colindale, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Public Health England Colindale, Public Health England Colindale, Imperial College London - NIHR Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling and Health Economics, Public Health England - National Infection Service, Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England, Imperial College London - NIHR Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling and Health Economics, Public Health England - National Infection Service, UK Health Security Agency - COVID-19 National Epidemiology Cell, Public Health England, Public Health England Colindale, Public Health England Colindale, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, University of Cambridge - MRC Biostatistics Unit, UK Health Security Agency - COVID-19 National Epidemiology Cell, Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England, University of Cambridge - MRC Biostatistics Unit and Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England

Imperial College London - Section of Adult Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, Public Health England - Emerging Infections and Zoonoses Unit, Imperial College London, Imperial College London - London BiofoundryImperial College London - Section of Structural and Synthetic Biology, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Public Health England Colindale, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Imperial College London, Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England Colindale, Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England, Virus Reference Department, Public Health England, Imperial College London - Section of Virology, Imperial College London - London Biofoundry, Imperial College London - Section of Virology, The University of Manchester - Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Public Health England - Virus Reference Department, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Imperial College London

UK Health Security Agency - COVID-19 National Epidemiology Cell, Public Health England, Public Health England, Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England, Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England, Public Health England, Public Health England - National Infection Service, Government of the United Kingdom, Department of Health and Social Care, National Infection Service, Healthcare-Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance (HCAI & AMR) Division, Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England, Public Health England Colindale, Public Health England - National Infection Service, Public Health England - National Infection Service, UK Health Security Agency - COVID-19 National Epidemiology Cell, UK Health Security Agency - COVID-19 Vaccines and Epidemiology Division, Imperial College London, Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, University of Oxford - NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance, Public Health England Colindale, Public Health England and Public Health England Colindale

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Population Health, University of Washington - Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Oxford - Big Data Institute (BDI), Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, University of Edinburgh - Institute of Immunology and Infection Research, University of New South Wales (UNSW) - Kirby Institute, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

Imperial College London - Section of Virology, Imperial College London - Section of Adult Infectious Disease, Imperial College London - Section of Virology, Imperial College London - Section of Virology, Imperial College London - Section of Virology, Imperial College London - Section of Virology, University of Nottingham - Health Protection and Influenza Research Group, hVIVO Services Ltd, hVIVO Services Ltd, hVIVO Services Ltd, University of Leicester - Department of Respiratory Sciences, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - Section of Adult Infectious Disease and Imperial College London - Section of Virology

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College London, University of Padua - Azienda Ospedale Padova, University of Padua - Azienda Ospedale Padova, University of Padua - Azienda Ospedale Padova, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padua - Azienda Ospedale Padova, University of Padua - Azienda Ospedale Padova, University of Padua - Azienda Ospedale Padova, University of Padua - Azienda Ospedale Padova, University of Padua - Azienda Ospedale Padova, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, Department of Surgery, Oncology and Gastroenterology, University of Padova, Imperial College London, University of Padua, University of Padua - Department of Medicine, University of Padua - Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, University of Oxford and University of Padua - DMM Department of Molecular Medicine

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Hospital of Tropical Diseases - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, GAVI Alliance (Vaccine Alliance), Government of the United Kingdom - Public Health England, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Université Laval - Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Johns Hopkins University - Bloomberg School of Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Department of Health Services Research and Policy, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Johns Hopkins University, Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Kaiser Permanente, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, University of Cambridge, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins University - Department of Epidemiology, Independent, University of Notre Dame - Department of Biological Sciences, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Hospital of Tropical Diseases - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Pennsylvania State University, Johns Hopkins University - Bloomberg School of Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Hospital of Tropical Diseases - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, University of Cambridge, Johns Hopkins University - Department of Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Department of Infectious Disease and Epidemiology, Harvard University - Department of Global Health and Population, Johns Hopkins University - Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University - Department of Epidemiology, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Independent