A Model of Social Security Disability Insurance Using Matched SIPP/Administrative Data

Abstract

We study Disability Insurance (DI) application behavior in the U.S. using a matched SIPP and administrative data over 1989-1995. Certain state-contingent earnings projections and eligibility probabilities are central to the analysis. We find evidence for a small work disincentive effect of DI that seems to be restricted to a subset of the DI beneficiaries, including low earning groups such as blue collar workers and those subject to economic dislocation. Processing time, Medicare value, unemployment, private health insurance, and health shocks are some of the major factors that affect application propensity. The behavioral response of female workers to various parameters of the DI program is found to be quite different from that of males.

Keywords: Disability behavior, SIPP, Social Security

JEL Classification: H55, I12, C35