The Illusion of Courage in Social Predictions: Underestimating the Impact of Fear of Embarrassment on Other People

Abstract

The results of two experiments support the thesis that emotional perspective taking entails two judgments: a prediction of one’s own preferences and decisions in a different emotional situation, and an adjustment of this prediction to accommodate perceived differences between self and others. Participants overestimated others’ willingness to engage in embarrassing public performances – miming (Experiment 1) and dancing (Experiment 2) – in exchange for money. Consistent with a dual judgment model, this overestimation was greater among participants facing a hypothetical rather than a real decision to perform. Further, participants’ predictions of others’ willingness to perform were more closely correlated with self-predictions than with participants’ estimates of others’ thoughts about the costs and benefits of performing.

Keywords: AVective forecasting, Decision making, Empathy gaps, Emotion, Judgment, Prediction, Perspective taking