Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments Using Data on Notification Dates

36 Pages Posted: 25 Oct 2010

See all articles by Bruno Crepon

Bruno Crepon

National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) - National School for Statistical and Economic Administration (ENSAE); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Marc Ferracci

Université Paris-Est Marne la Vallée (UPEMLV); CREST-INSEE

Grégory Jolivet

University of Bristol

Gerard J. van den Berg

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Tinbergen Institute

Abstract

When treatments may occur at different points in time, most evaluation methods assume – implicitly or explicitly – that all the information used by subjects about the occurrence of a future treatment is available to the researcher. This is often called the “no anticipation” assumption. In reality, subjects may receive private signals about the date when a treatment may start. We provide a methodological and empirical analysis of this issue in a setting where the outcome of interest as well as the moment of information arrival (notification) and the start of the treatment can all be characterized by duration variables. Building on the "Timing of Events" approach, we show that the causal effects of notification and of the treatment on the outcome are identified. We estimate the model on an administrative data set of unemployed workers in France which provides the date when job seekers receive information from caseworkers about their future treatment status. We find that notification has a significant and positive effect on unemployment duration. This result violates the standard "no anticipation" assumption and rules out a "threat effect" of training programs in France.

Keywords: evaluation of labor market programs, training, duration model, timing of events, anticipation

JEL Classification: C31, C41, J64, J68

Suggested Citation

Crepon, Bruno and Ferracci, Marc and Jolivet, Grégory and van den Berg, Gerard J., Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments Using Data on Notification Dates. IZA Discussion Paper No. 5265. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1696889

Bruno Crepon (Contact Author)

National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) - National School for Statistical and Economic Administration (ENSAE) ( email )

92245 Malakoff Cedex
France

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Marc Ferracci

Université Paris-Est Marne la Vallée (UPEMLV) ( email )

France

CREST-INSEE

18, Boulevard Adolphe-Pinard
92244 Malakoff Cedex
France

Grégory Jolivet

University of Bristol ( email )

University of Bristol,
Senate House, Tyndall Avenue
Bristol, BS8 ITH
United Kingdom

Gerard J. Van den Berg

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
1081 HV Amsterdam
Netherlands
+31 20 444 6132 (Phone)
+32 20 444 6020 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Tinbergen Institute

Burg. Oudlaan 50
Rotterdam, 3062 PA
Netherlands

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