Toward a Revised Theory of Technology Cycle for the Knowledge Economy - An Empirical Analysis of Microprocessor, Mobile Cellular and Genome Sequencing Technologies

Abstract

Does the innovation process in knowledge-based technologies differ from the same process in the industrial technologies? Are innovations in the knowledge economy gaining intensity and speed? Does the knowledge economy need a new theory of technology cycle?

These are the three key issues examined in this paper. This paper examines characteristics of radical innovation from a longitudinal study of the knowledge-based technologies: genome sequencing, mobile cellular, and microprocessor technologies.

Our findings are also compared to the results reported by Anderson and Tushman (1990) on the industrial technologies. We found that the role of radical innovation in the knowledge economy has become so critical that it deserves a new designation of “super” radical innovation. For example, the magnitude of performance improvement of super radical innovations is 20 times greater than non-radical innovations within the knowledge-based technologies and is 9 times greater compared to radical innovations from the industrial group. Finally, a revised theory of technology cycle relevant to the knowledge-based technologies will be proposed.

Keywords: Super Radical Innovation, Technology Cycle, Dominant Design, Knowledge Technologies, Industrial Technologies