Has Trump Damaged the U.S. Image Abroad? Decomposing the Effects of Policy Messages on Foreign Public Opinion

Political Behavior, Forthcoming

68 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2017 Last revised: 25 Oct 2018

See all articles by Alexander Agadjanian

Alexander Agadjanian

MIT Election and Data Science Lab

Yusaku Horiuchi

Dartmouth College - Department of Government

Date Written: October 13, 2018

Abstract

The U.S. President Donald Trump has frequently made foreign countries central to his political messages, often conveying animosity. But do foreign citizens react more to the speaker of these messages -- Trump himself -- or their content? More generally, when people are exposed to messages sent from foreign countries, are their attitudes influenced by information heuristics or information content in messages? Although related studies are abundant in the literature of American public opinion, these questions are not fully examined in the literature of foreign public opinion. To address them, we used Japan as a case and fielded a survey experiment exposing citizens to U.S. policy messages that varied by source, policy content, and issue salience. Results suggest that while the source cue (Trump attribution) causes negative perceptions of the U.S., the policy content (cooperative vs. uncooperative) has a larger effect in shaping opinion of the U.S. Furthermore, analysis of interaction effects shows that only when U.S. policy approach is uncooperative does the Trump attribution have significantly negative and large effects. We conclude that foreign citizens rely more on policy content in transnational opinion formation -- an aspect that past research in this area has overlooked. Substantively, these findings may demonstrate that even under a presidency that has alienated foreign countries and seemingly undermined U.S. stature in the world, foreign opinion toward the U.S. does not hinge entirely on its political leader. In short, Trump has not irreparably damaged U.S. image abroad.

Keywords: Foreign Public Opinion, Political Psychology, Political Communication, Heuristics, Cues, Japan, Trump

JEL Classification: C90, C91, D72, D83, D91

Suggested Citation

Agadjanian, Alexander and Horiuchi, Yusaku, Has Trump Damaged the U.S. Image Abroad? Decomposing the Effects of Policy Messages on Foreign Public Opinion (October 13, 2018). Political Behavior, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3039822 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3039822

Alexander Agadjanian

MIT Election and Data Science Lab ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

Yusaku Horiuchi (Contact Author)

Dartmouth College - Department of Government ( email )

204 Silsby Hall
HB 6108
Hanover, NH 03755
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.dartmouth.edu/horiuchi/

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