Psychological targeting with scarcity messages: When scarcity-based persuasion fails for the average consumer, it might still influence specific consumers

Abstract

E-commerce platforms widely use scarcity messages-such as "only 2 left" or "offer ends soon"-to create urgency and influence consumer decisions. However, recent evidence suggests these persuasive tactics often fail in online contexts. This study investigates whether scarcity-based marketing can become more effective through psychological targeting, specifically by tailoring messages to consumers based on personality traits. We conducted an online experiment (N = 834), in which participants evaluated a product presented with either a supply-, demand-, or time-based scarcity message or no scarcity cue. We measured five consumer outcomes: expected price, perceived value, willingness to pay, purchase intention, and purchase decision. While scarcity messages had no average effects across the sample, we found significant moderation effects based on personality traits from the HEXACO and Disintegration frameworks. Traits such as low Honesty-Humility, high Disintegration, and high Agreeableness increased susceptibility to supply-based scarcity cues. These findings suggest that although scarcity appeals may be ineffective for the average consumer, they can still influence psychologically defined subgroups. The results highlight the theoretical and practical value of combining persuasive design with individual difference frameworks, and have direct implications for consumer protection policy and personalized marketing in an era of increasingly data-driven persuasion.

Keywords: Persuasive marketing, personality traits, e-commerce, dark patterns, personalization