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Geoff Kenny

European Central Bank (ECB)

Sonnemannstrasse 22

Frankfurt am Main, 60314

Germany

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

31

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7,466

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Top 3,826

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220

Scholarly Papers (31)

The COVID-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries

Number of pages: 60 Posted: 22 Dec 2020 Last Revised: 08 Jan 2021
Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 457 (156,749)
Citation 1

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COVID-19, Consumption, Income Shocks, Marginal Propensity to Consume, Financial Concerns, Fiscal Policies

The COVID-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries

ECB Working Paper No. 20202507
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 18 Dec 2020
Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 199 (380,515)
Citation 3

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The COVID-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15525
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 23 Dec 2020
Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 2 (1,657,086)
Citation 15
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2.

Clear, Consistent and Engaging: ECB Monetary Policy Communication in a Changing World

ECB Occasional Paper No. 2021/274
Number of pages: 91 Posted: 23 Sep 2021 Last Revised: 19 Jan 2022
European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General International and European Relations, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Italy, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Národná banka Slovenska, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General International and European Relations, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Banco de España, European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Deutsche Bundesbank, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Bank of Greece, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Greece, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Central Bank of Ireland, National Bank of Belgium, European Central Bank (ECB), Banque de France, Deutsche Bundesbank, Bank of Finland, Deutsche Bundesbank, Latvijas Banka, Deutsche BundesbankGoethe University Frankfurt - House of Finance, Banco de España, De Nederlandsche Bank, Národná banka Slovenska, Bank of Estonia, National Bank of Belgium, Central Bank of Cyprus and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 598 (115,389)
Citation 1

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accountability, central bank, forward guidance, transparency, trust

3.

The Rationality of Consumers' Inflation Expectations: Survey-Based Evidence for the Euro Area

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 14 May 2003
Magnus Forsells and Geoff Kenny
European Central Bank (ECB) and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 547 (126,105)
Citation 31

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Inflation expectations, Surveys, Rationality, Euro area

4.

ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: An Overview and First Evaluation

ECB Occasional Paper No. 2021/287
Number of pages: 137 Posted: 10 Dec 2021
European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Greece, European Central Bank (ECB), National Institute of Statistics (Istat), European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), De Nederlandsche Bank and Government of the Republic of Finland - Statistics Finland
Downloads 525 (135,937)

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consumer behaviour, euro area, expectations, household surveys, micro data set

5.

Inflation Expectations, Consumption and the Lower Bound: Micro Evidence from a Large Euro Area Survey

ECB Working Paper No. 2196
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 16 Nov 2018
Ioana Duca, Geoff Kenny and Andreas Reuter
European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and European Union - European Commission
Downloads 505 (141,246)
Citation 11

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consumer inflation expectations, consumption, lower bound, micro data

6.

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) - A Review After Eight Years' Experience

ECB Occasional Paper No. 59
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 11 Apr 2007
European Central Bank (ECB), European Union - European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 435 (170,764)
Citation 11

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7.

Credibility Gains from Communicating with the Public: Evidence from the ECB's New Monetary Policy Strategy

ECB Working Paper No. 2023/2785
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 17 Feb 2023
European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 390 (194,151)

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central bank communication, Consumer Expectations Survey, credibility, financial literacy, randomised control trial

The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending

ECB Working Paper No. 2021/2557
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 24 May 2021
University of Texas at Austin, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 136 (538,342)
Citation 63

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The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending

University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2021-35, Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 22-17
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 06 Apr 2021 Last Revised: 12 Oct 2022
University of Texas at Austin, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 118 (648,902)
Citation 1

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Uncertainty, household spending, household finance, Consumer Expectations Survey, randomized control trial

The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending

IZA Discussion Paper No. 14213
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 30 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2021
University of Texas at Austin, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 47 (1,144,483)

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surveys, household finance, household spending, uncertainty, randomized control trial

The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending

NBER Working Paper No. w28625
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 29 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 20 Mar 2022
University of Texas at Austin, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 30 (1,356,108)

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The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15966
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 31 Mar 2021
University of Texas at Austin, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 2 (1,657,086)
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9.

Tell Me Something I Don’t Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings

Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 23-14, Fama-Miller Working Paper , University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2023-102
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 20 Jul 2023 Last Revised: 22 Aug 2024
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), University of Montevideo, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, University of Texas at Austin, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology, European Central Bank (ECB), Universidad ORT Uruguay, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics and Central Bank of Uruguay
Downloads 313 (242,568)
Citation 1

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Inattention, RCTs, inflation expectations

Household Inflation Expectations: An Overview of Recent Insights for Monetary Policy

ECB Working Paper No. 2024/24
Number of pages: 66 Posted: 20 May 2024
Georgetown University, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 104 (679,343)

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central bank communication, consumer expectations survey, consumers, inflation expectations, monetary policy

Household Inflation Expectations: An Overview of Recent Insights for Monetary Policy

University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2024-66
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 31 May 2024
Georgetown University, Bank of Greece, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 93 (749,143)
Citation 1

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Household Inflation Expectations: An Overview of Recent Insights for Monetary Policy

Chicago Booth Research Paper 24-17, Fama-Miller Working Paper
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 22 May 2024
Georgetown University, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 68 (903,821)
Citation 1

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Consumers, Monetary Policy, Consumer Expectations Survey, Central Bank Communication, Inflation Expectations

Household Inflation Expectations: An Overview of Recent Insights for Monetary Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w32488
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 28 May 2024
Georgetown University, Bank of Greece, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 34 (1,311,254)

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11.

Some Lessons From the Financial Crisis for the Economic Analysis

ECB Occasional Paper No. 130
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
Geoff Kenny and Julian Benedict Morgan
European Central Bank (ECB) and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 270 (282,737)
Citation 20

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Euro Area, Financial Crisis, Macro Economic Forecasting

12.

The Ecb's Price Stability Framework: Past Experience, and Current and Future Challenges

ECB Occasional Paper No. 2021269
Number of pages: 128 Posted: 23 Sep 2021 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2021
Bank of Italy, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Banque de France - Centre de Recherche, Bank of Latvia, ECB -DG Monetary Policy, De Nederlandsche Bank, European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Portugal, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Italy, European Central Bank (ECB), Banque de France, Bank of Finland - Research, Central Bank of Cyprus, Deutsche BundesbankEuropean Central Bank (ECB)University of Kiel, European Central BankECB, European Central Bank (ECB), Central Bank of Ireland, Banco de España, Bank of Italy, Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank (ECB), Banque de France, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), De Nederlandsche Bank, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Finland, Central Bank of Ireland, European Central Bank (ECB), Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank (ECB), Národná banka Slovenska, Banka Slovenije, European Central Bank (ECB), Banque de France, Deutsche Bundesbank, Bank of Greece, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, European Central Bank, European Central Bank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, National Bank of Belgium, Bank of Italy and Bank of Italy
Downloads 261 (293,053)
Citation 1

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effective lower bound, euro area, European Central Bank, monetary policy strategy, price stability

13.

A Strategic View on the Economic and Inflation Environment in the Euro Area

ECB Occasional Paper No. 2025/371
Number of pages: 194 Posted: 01 Jul 2025
Christiane Nickel, Juha Kilponen, Enrique Moral-Benito, Gerrit Koester, Elena Bobeica, Claus Brand, Pablo Burriel, Marteen Dossche, Gabriele Galati, Michele Lenza, Matteo Ciccarelli, Almira Enders, Sarah Holton, Bettina Landau, Fabrizio Venditti, David Lodge, Beatrice Pierluigi, Eva Ortega, Harri Pönkä, Thomas Warmedinger, Branislav Albert, Ugo Albertazzi, Maria Grazia Attinasi, Marta Banbura, Niccolò Battistini, Andrejs Bessonovs, Dennis Bonam, Vladimir Borgy, Alexandre Carvalho, Cristina D. Checherita-Westphal, Agostino Consolo, Agostino Consolo, Giuseppe Corbisiero, Pietro Cova, Nathaniel Debono, Luca Dedola, Ettore Dorrucci, Michaela Elfsbacka Schmöller, Lorenz Emter, Juraj Falath, Friedrich Fritzer, Annette Fröhling, Pablo Garcia-Sanchez, Johannes Gareis, Alex Grimaud, Adam Gulan, Marco Hoeberichts, José Emilio Gumiel, Christian Höynck, John Hutchinson, Alexandros Karakitsios, Evangelia Kasimati, Daria Kazakova, Geoff Kenny, Friderike Kuik, Laura Lebastard, Paloma Lopez-Garcia, Marko Luketina, Reamonn Lydon, Ana-Simona Manu, Catalina Martínez Hernández, Giulia Martorana, Baptiste Meunier, Wolfgang Modery, Daphne Momferatou, Carlos Montes-Galdón, Chiara Osbat, Adrian Page, Gasper Ploj, Reet Reedik, Tomas Reichenbachas, Pedro Ribeiro, Juliette Sagot, Béla Szörfi, Máté Tóth, Maria Teresa Valderrama, Joris Wauters, Thomas Westermann, Ivan Žilić, Helene Zimmer, Roberta Zizza, Robert Zorko, Pablo Aguilar, Yildiz Akkaya, Elena Angelini, Katarzyna Bańkowska, Colm Bates, Jeanne Beck, Nicola Benatti, Lea Bitter, Vasco Botelho, Mohammed Chahad, Kai Philipp Christoffel, Bruno De Backer, Rodolfo Dinis Rigato, Elisabeth Falk, Claudia Foroni, Emanuele Franceschi, Jose Elias Gallegos, Dimitris Georgarakos, Gavin Goy, Johannes Groß, Elke Hahn, Jaime Martínez-Martín, Boryana Ilieva, Markus Jorra, Petteri Juvonen, Hanno Kase, Iván Kataryniuk, Georgi Kocharkov, Antoine Kornprobst, Neil Lawton, Noëmie Lisack, Demosthenes Ioannou, Falk Mazelis, Thomas McGregor, Aidan Meyler, Tobias Müller, Galo Nuño, Iván Ordoñez Martínez, Andrea Papetti, Joan Paredes, Miles Parker, Blanca Prat I, Romanos Priftis, Roehe Oke, Moreno Roma, Fabian Schupp, Antoine Sigwalt, Christian Speck, Elisabeth Wieland, Srecko Zimic, Mario D'Agostino, Filippo Durero, Claudia Esposito, Dario Esposito, Christian Huber, Ivelina Ilkova, Alicja Kobayashi, Elias Krief, Claudio Manzoni and Philip Muggenthaler-Gerathewohl
European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Finland - Research, Banco de España, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Banco de España, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics, De Nederlandsche Bank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Italy, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Spain, DG Economics, Statistics and Research, Bank of Finland, European Central Bank (ECB), Národná banka Slovenska, ECB -DG Monetary Policy, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank, European Central Bank (ECB), Latvijas Banka, De Nederlandsche Bank, Banque de France, Banque de France, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central BankECB, Central Bank of Ireland, Bank of Italy, Central Bank of Malta, Bank of Italy, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Národná banka Slovenska, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Deutsche Bundesbank, Banque Centrale du Luxembourg, Deutsche Bundesbank, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Bank of Finland - Research, De Nederlandsche Bank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Greece, Bank of Greece, Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics, Hrvatska Narodna Banka, Central Bank of Ireland, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Slovenia, Bank of Estonia, Bank of Lithuania, Bank of Portugal, Banque de France, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Austrian National Bank, National Bank of Belgium, European Central Bank (ECB), Hrvatska Narodna Banka, National Bank of Belgium, Bank of Italy, Banka Slovenije, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), National Bank of Belgium, European Central Bank (ECB), Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Banco de España, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, De Nederlandsche Bank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Deutsche Bundesbank, Bank of Finland, European Central Bank (ECB), Banco de España, Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Banco de España, European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Italy, European Central Bank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank (ECB), Deutsche Bundesbank, Banque de France, Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 217 (364,680)

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Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings

ECB Working Paper No. 2024/2914
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 13 Mar 2024
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Columbia University, Bank of Italy, Universidad ORT at Uruguay, University of Montevideo, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology, University of California, Berkeley, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of Texas at Austin, European Central Bank (ECB) and Central Bank of Uruguay
Downloads 100 (705,092)
Citation 2

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inattention, inflation expectations, RCTs

Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings

IZA Discussion Paper No. 16305
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 14 Jul 2023
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), University of California, Berkeley, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Universidad ORT Uruguay, University of Montevideo, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of Texas at Austin, European Central Bank (ECB) and Central Bank of Uruguay
Downloads 82 (805,635)
Citation 9

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inattention, RCTs, inflation expectations

Tell Me Something I Don’t Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings

NBER Working Paper No. w31485
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 24 Jul 2023
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Bank of Italy, Universidad ORT Uruguay, University of Montevideo, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of Texas at Austin, European Central Bank (ECB) and Central Bank of Uruguay
Downloads 30 (1,356,108)
Citation 10

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15.

Consumer Attitudes Towards a Central Bank Digital Currency

ECB Working Paper No. 2025/3035
Number of pages: 83 Posted: 13 Mar 2025
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 181 (418,025)
Citation 2

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Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), consumer expectations survey, household expectations, household finance, money, payments, Randomized Control Trial (RCT)

How Costly are Business Cycle Volatility and Inflation? A Vox Populi Approach

IZA Discussion Paper No. 17675
Number of pages: 68 Posted: 13 Feb 2025
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Yonsei University, University of Texas at Austin, Yonsei University, New York University (NYU) - New York University, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB), Yonsei University and World Bank
Downloads 55 (1,049,673)

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cost of business cycles, willingness to pay, inflation

How Costly Are Business Cycle Volatility and Inflation? A Vox Populi Approach

Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 25-03
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 03 Mar 2025
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Independent, The University of Texas, Yonsei University - School of Economics, New York University (NYU) - New York University, University of California, Berkeley, European Central Bank (ECB), Yonsei University and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 49 (1,107,422)

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cost of business cycles, willingness to pay, inflation

How Costly Are Business Cycle Volatility and Inflation? A Vox Populi Approach

University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2025-34
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 19 Feb 2025
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, School of Economics, Yonsei University, University of Texas at Austin, Yonsei University, New York University (NYU) - New York University, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB), Yonsei University and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 47 (1,144,483)

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How Costly Are Business Cycle Volatility and Inflation? A Vox Populi Approach

NBER Working Paper No. w33476
Number of pages: 92 Posted: 18 Feb 2025
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, School of Economics, Yonsei University, University of Texas at Austin, Yonsei University, New York University (NYU) - New York University, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB), Yonsei University and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 27 (1,400,723)
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How Do Rising Temperatures Affect Inflation Expectations?

ECB Working Paper No. 2025/3132
Number of pages: 81 Posted: 07 Oct 2025
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and De Nederlandsche Bank
Downloads 146 (531,514)

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climate change, consumer expectations, Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), global warming, Randomized Control Trial (RCT)

How Do Rising Temperatures Affect Inflation Expectations?

Number of pages: 88 Posted: 21 May 2026
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and De Nederlandsche Bank
Downloads 14 (1,598,105)

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Climate change, Global Warming, Inflation expectations, Randomized Control Trial (RCT), Consumer Expectations Survey (CES)

18.

Combining the Forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: Can Anything Beat the Simple Average?

ECB Working Paper No. 1277
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 11 Dec 2010
European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and UCSD
Downloads 157 (477,517)
Citation 13

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forecast combination, forecast evaluation, data snooping, real-time data, Survey of Professional Forecasters

19.

Quality Adjustment of European Price Statistics and the Role for Hedonics

ECB Occasional Paper No. 15
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 09 Jul 2005
Henning Ahnert and Geoff Kenny
European Central Bank and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 156 (477,517)

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20.

Can Macroeconomists Forecast Risk? Event-Based Evidence from the Euro Area SPF

ECB Working Paper No. 1540
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 11 May 2013
Geoff Kenny, Thomas Kostka and Federico Masera
European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Department of Economics
Downloads 147 (508,926)
Citation 1

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probability forecasts, forecast evaluation, calibration error, Survey of Professional Forecasters

The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households' Beliefs and Actions

IZA Discussion Paper No. 17317
Number of pages: 71 Posted: 01 Oct 2024
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 117 (620,578)
Citation 1

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inflation uncertainty, consumption, household finance, labor supply, consumer expectations survey

The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households' Beliefs and Actions

NBER Working Paper No. w33014
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 07 Oct 2024
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 25 (1,430,393)
Citation 5
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22.

The Long-Term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: What has Changed Since the Great Recession?

ECB Working Paper No. 1999
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 03 Feb 2017
Jonas Dovern and Geoff Kenny
Kiel Institute for the World Economy and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 135 (540,814)
Citation 6

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inflation expectations, density forecasts, ECB, euro area

The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Consumer Expectations and Spending

NBER Working Paper No. w34195
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 03 Sep 2025
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank (ECB) and University of Texas at Austin
Downloads 69 (895,539)
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The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Consumer Expectations and Spending

IZA Discussion Paper No. 18084
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 27 Aug 2025
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research and University of Texas at Austin
Downloads 58 (1,038,620)

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expectations, risk, war, international conflicts, geopolitics, Consumer Expectations Survey.

24.

Consumer Savings Behaviour at Low and Negative Interest Rates

ECB Working Paper No. 2022/2736
Number of pages: 66 Posted: 29 Sep 2022
Marco Felici, Geoff Kenny and Roberta Friz
University of Cambridge - Department of Land Economy, European Central Bank (ECB) and European Union - European Commission
Downloads 100 (694,528)

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consumer survey, euro area, liquidity trap, nominal interest rates, savings

Testing for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations: A Compositional Data Approach

ECB Working Paper No. 2023/2791
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 28 Feb 2023
Jonas Dovern, Alexander Glas and Geoff Kenny
Friedrich Alexander University Erlangen Nuremberg, Deutsche Bundesbank and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 41 (1,196,631)

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compositional data, density forecasts, disagreement, survey forecasts

Testing for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations: A Compositional Data Approach

CESifo Working Paper No. 10256
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 09 Feb 2023
Jonas Dovern, Alexander Glas and Geoff Kenny
Friedrich Alexander University Erlangen Nuremberg, Deutsche Bundesbank and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 37 (1,267,060)

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compositional data, density forecasts, survey forecasts, disagreement

26.

Household Spending and Fiscal Support During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Insights from a New Consumer Survey

ECB Working Paper No. 2022/2643
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 17 Feb 2022
Dimitris Georgarakos and Geoff Kenny
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 64 (933,592)

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Consumer Expectations Survey, COVID-19, fiscal policy, household perceptions

27.

How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3671
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 14 Dec 2011
Geoff Kenny, Thomas Kostka and Federico Masera
European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Department of Economics
Downloads 64 (942,565)
Citation 4

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density forecasts, forecast evaluation, real-time data, survey of professional forecasters

28.

How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconimists?

ECB Working Paper No. 1446
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 27 Jul 2012
Geoff Kenny, Thomas Kostka and Federico Masera
European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Department of Economics
Downloads 63 (942,565)
Citation 2

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Forecast evaluation, neglected risks, real-time data, Survey of Professional Forecasters

Labor Supply Response to Windfall Gains

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 12 Apr 2024
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics, European Central Bank (ECB) and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)Stanford University
Downloads 41 (1,210,354)

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Survey Experiment, Labor Supply, job search, Wealth Shocks, Consumer Expectations Survey

Labor Supply Response to Windfall Gains

ECB Working Paper No. 2025/3154
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 19 Nov 2025
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics, European Central Bank (ECB) and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)Stanford University
Downloads 21 (1,486,852)

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consumer expectations survey, job search, labor supply, survey experiment, wealth shocks

30.

Density Characteristics and Density Forecast Performance: A Panel Analysis

ECB Working Paper No. 1679
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 05 Jul 2014
Geoff Kenny, Thomas Kostka and Federico Masera
European Central Bank (ECB), European Central Bank (ECB) and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Department of Economics
Downloads 57 (989,921)
Citation 4

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density forecasting, forecast evaluation, Survey of Professional Forecasters, panel data

31.

Stockholding in Europe: Evidence from the Consumer Expectations Survey

ECB Working Paper No. 2026/3239
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 28 May 2026
Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics, European Central Bank (ECB) and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 32 (1,509,872)

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consumer expectations survey, crypto assets, household finance, mutual funds, stocks